← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 48% | 48% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.69 | value: +17% |
| Valencia CF win | 26% | 20% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 35' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Luis Muriel · Sevilla FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Geoffrey Kondogbia · Valencia CF |
| 68' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joaquín Correa · Sevilla FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 99.00 | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1626.83 | 1650.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.80 | 31.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| league points | 45.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |