← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 48% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 25% | 33% | 3.90 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Brown Ideye · Málaga CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jeison Murillo · Valencia CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Manuel Iturra · Málaga CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Francis Coquelin · Valencia CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Chori Castro · Málaga CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 80' | ⚽ | Francis Coquelin · Valencia CF |
| 84' | 🟥 | Ignasi Miquel · Málaga CF |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 353.00 | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1453.83 | 1627.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.97 | -14.46 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| league points | 13.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.15 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |