← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.10 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 23% | 26% | 4.26 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas |
| 21' | 🟨 | Toni Lato · Valencia CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Rúben Vezo · Valencia CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 52' | 🟥 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 62' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Valencia CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Neto · Valencia CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jairo Samperio · Las Palmas |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alen Halilović · Las Palmas |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rúben Vezo · Valencia CF |
| 87' | 🟥 | Rúben Vezo · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francis Coquelin · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 9 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 50.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 9.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1383.10 | 1648.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.54 | -5.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.80 |
| league points | 11.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.90 |
| state index | -1.35 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.62 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |