← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 72% | 72% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.97 | fair |
| Girona win | 8% | 8% | 12.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 34' | ⚽ | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 37' | 🟨 | Aday Benítez · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thomas Partey · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 66' | 🟨 | Šime Vrsaljko · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 73' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 81' | 🟨 | José María Giménez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bernardo Espinosa · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Oblak · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Estadio Wanda Metropolitano |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 2242.00 | 1494.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1817.51 | 1542.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.85 | 10.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 22.48 | — |
| state index | 1.06 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |