← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 68% | 68% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.35 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 13% | 13% | 7.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 805.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1677.15 | 2048.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.96 | 19.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 2.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.90 |
| league points | 23.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.82 | 2.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.60 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 28.05 |
| state index | 0.19 | 2.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |