← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 93% | 92% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 5% | 5% | 18.50 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 2% | 3% | 46.00 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Levante UD |
| 12' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 31' | 🟨 | Sergio Postigo · Levante UD |
| 38' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 70' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Boateng · Levante UD |
| 84' | 🟨 | Róber Pier · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paulinho · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 22 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 220.00 | 555.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1945.67 | 1525.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.70 | -15.23 |
| eye test v1 | 2.06 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.78 |
| league points | 45.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.65 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.15 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.62 | — |
| state index | 1.87 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |