← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 43% | 40% | 2.29 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.65 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Francisco Molinero · Getafe CF |
| 21' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Geoffrey Kondogbia · Valencia CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 25' | 🟥 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Markel Bergara · Getafe CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 71' | 🟨 | Amath Ndiaye · Getafe CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | — · Getafe CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Valencia CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 12 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| coach days | 458.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1565.10 | 1664.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.22 | 55.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 69.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| league points | 16.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.32 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |