← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 40% | 30% | 2.45 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 32% | 42% | 3.11 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 56' | 🟨 | Alberto de la Bella · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 70' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Getafe CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gerónimo Rulli · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 423.00 | 728.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1552.30 | 1624.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.21 | 12.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| league points | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.95 | 2.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.37 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.52 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |