← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 90% | 91% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 6% | 15.25 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 4% | 3% | 26.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Paulinho · FC Barcelona |
| 35' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
| 51' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas |
| 70' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 77' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.73 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 122.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1919.28 | 1451.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.42 | 8.02 |
| eye test v1 | 1.88 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.50 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.52 | — |
| state index | 1.94 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.87 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |