← Primera Division 2017-18 · Tue, Sep 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 86% | 86% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 8% | 10.39 | fair |
| Eibar win | 5% | 5% | 20.98 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 38' | ⚽ | Paulinho · FC Barcelona |
| 53' | ⚽ | Denis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 57' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 59' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 62' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 80' | 🟨 | Alejandro Gálvez · Eibar |
| 87' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 4 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 110.00 | 811.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1911.83 | 1543.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.09 | -2.55 |
| eye test v1 | 1.71 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.81 |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.78 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.52 | — |
| state index | 1.95 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.80 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |