← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 40% | 33% | 2.46 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 33% | 42% | 2.93 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Toni Lato · Valencia CF |
| 30' | 🟨 | Enzo Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Stevan Jovetić · Sevilla FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Vicente Iborra · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days |
| 136.00 |
| 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1555.22 | 1661.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.08 | -22.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| league points | 39.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.09 | — |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |