← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 45% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
| Granada win | 29% | 29% | 3.43 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 21' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Uche Agbo · Granada |
| 46' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 55' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ezequiel Ponce · Granada |
| 70' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Granada |
| 74' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.69 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days | 8.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1515.26 | 1647.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.14 | 10.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.81 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 24.56 | 26.88 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |