← Primera Division 2016-17 · Thu, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 44% | 46% | 2.23 | value: +3% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 29% | 26% | 3.38 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Gustavo Cabral · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 22' | 🟨 | Fabián Orellana · Valencia CF |
| 30' | 🟨 | Théo Bongonda · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 38' | ⚽ | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 67' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Valencia CF |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 86' | ⚽ | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 126.00 | 430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1637.14 | 1713.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.36 | 26.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 33.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.82 | 27.06 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |