← Primera Division 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 71% | 68% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.93 | value: +22% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 9% | 7% | 11.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Vicente Calderón |
| coach days | 1951.00 | 520.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1779.58 | 1586.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.98 | -29.87 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 58.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 23.18 | — |
| state index | 1.30 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |