← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 37% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +11% |
| Valencia CF win | 32% | 28% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · Valencia CF |
| 18' | 🟨 | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marcos Llorente · Deportivo Alavés |
| 42' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · Deportivo Alavés |
| 68' | 🟨 | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 70' | ⚽ | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabián Orellana · Valencia CF |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ibai Gómez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 86' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Katai · Deportivo Alavés |
| 88' | 🟨 | Fabián Orellana · Valencia CF |
| 88' | 🟥 | Fabián Orellana · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 269.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1509.84 | 1535.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.95 | 1.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| league points | 30.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.39 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |