← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 52% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
| Eibar win | 22% | 25% | 4.49 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 45' | 🟥 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrián González · Eibar |
| 57' | ⚽ | Dani García · Eibar |
| 66' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
| 77' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days | 65.00 | 584.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1521.76 | 1506.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.42 | 11.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.39 | — |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |