← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 47% | 49% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.37 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 24% | 26% | 4.08 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Enzo Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 42' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 173.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1635.02 | 1512.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.66 | -5.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.69 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.61 |
| league points | 31.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.98 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |