← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 78% | 83% | 1.25 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.40 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 6% | 6% | 15.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Vicente Calderón |
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 1794.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.60 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1917.61 | 1648.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.39 | 22.52 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 43.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.64 |
| league points | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 26.92 |
| state index | 1.55 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |