wc2014-intpool-replay

← all backtests · poisson_tw · seasons 2014 · markets 1x2

85

bets placed · hit rate 41.2%

$286.04

P&L · ROI 21.6% on $1321 staked

0.00%

CLV · avg edge vs closing line

0.1732 / 0.1766

Brier model/market · beats the close ✓

Calibration (all scored predictions)

Calibration table

Bin	n	Predicted	Actual
0.0-0.1	12	6.8%	8.3%
0.1-0.2	38	15.5%	18.4%
0.2-0.3	58	25.2%	15.5%
0.3-0.4	31	34.3%	32.3%
0.4-0.5	9	45.1%	55.6%
0.5-0.6	22	55.6%	72.7%
0.6-0.7	10	65.2%	70.0%
0.7-0.8	8	73.0%	75.0%
0.8-0.9	4	84.0%	75.0%

Biggest swingsthe bets that moved this run most, either way

Match	Market	Pick	Model %	Market %	Stake	P&L
Nigeria v Bosnia and Herzegovina	Match result	Nigeria win	34.3%	22.5%	$20.00	+67.00
Greece v Ivory Coast	Match result	Greece win	37.9%	23.6%	$20.00	+63.00
Uruguay v England	Match result	Uruguay win	40.3%	25.0%	$20.00	+58.40
Algeria v Russia	Match result	Draw	35.0%	25.4%	$20.00	+57.40
Spain v Chile	Match result	Chile win	20.9%	16.7%	$11.61	+56.42
Costa Rica v England	Match result	Draw	29.6%	24.1%	$16.60	+50.80
South Korea v Algeria	Match result	Algeria win	40.0%	31.7%	$20.00	+41.80
Ecuador v France	Match result	Draw	27.0%	22.8%	$12.07	+39.71
Netherlands v Chile	Match result	Netherlands win	41.8%	35.1%	$20.00	+35.80
Ivory Coast v Japan	Match result