← FIFA World Cup 2014 · Sun, Jul 13, 08:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Germany win | 41% | 45% | 2.50 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Argentina win | 29% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +5% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 0 |
| final home goals | 2 |
| qualified | home |
| venue | Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã) (Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro) |