WC sim value gf

Gap-filtered twin of wc_sim_value_v1: identical sim signal, but each edge must ALSO be blessed by the gap-survival classifier (P(model side right) >= 0.55, trained on 21 seasons of model-vs-market disagreements). The meta-filter's live A/B.

The rule, in plain words

Probabilities come from: Poisson/Dixon-Coles fixtures simulation (expected goals for each side, played out over every scoreline).
Bets any Match result selection where the model's probability × best available price beats 1.00 by more than 8% — i.e. the model thinks the outcome is meaningfully more likely than the price implies.
Stakes: flat $10 per bet.

football · Match result · status: retired · betting forward from 2026-07-06 · same $1000 start as every other strategy

$1000.00

balance (started at $1000)

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nothing settled yet

0/0

bets won / settled

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0 bets still pending

Every bet this strategy madelatest 0

No bets yet — it will bet automatically when its conditions are met.

"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.