WC keeper wall

World Cup club-form carryover: a keeper doesn't forget how to save when he swaps his club shirt for his country's. Back a team (1x2) when THEIR keeper's rolling save% — built from ALL his matches, club included — is hot (>=75%) and the OPPONENT'S keeper is leaky (<=68%), requiring only a non-negative sim edge so the keeper signal is the driver. NOTE: fires only once nations carry team.keeper_form values (needs AF starter data for national-team matches — the daily catchup is filling this); silent until then by design, never guessing.

The rule, in plain words

Probabilities come from: Poisson/Dixon-Coles fixtures simulation (expected goals for each side, played out over every scoreline).
Bets any Match result selection where the model's probability × best available price beats 1.00 by more than 0% — i.e. the model thinks the outcome is meaningfully more likely than the price implies.
Extra condition: keeper form of the side being backed must be at least 0.75.
Extra condition: keeper form of the opponent must be at most 0.68.
Stakes: flat $10 per bet.

football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-10 · same $1000 start as every other strategy

$1000.00

balance (started at $1000)

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nothing settled yet

0/0

bets won / settled

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0 bets still pending

Every bet this strategy madelatest 0

No bets yet — it will bet automatically when its conditions are met.

"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.