edge_hunt finding (2026-07-09): back the AWAY side at short/even odds (<=2.6) in Serie A / Ligue 1 / Primeira. +3.0% ROI at consensus market price, +4.7% best-of-book over 3,366 bets (2015+). Survives a temporal train/test split, BEATS the closing line, positive in 13/14 recent seasons, holds at consensus (not a best-of-book artifact; ~3 books/game). Maps to the home-favouritism bias. CAVEATS: small edge (~3%); ~2012 regime change means exploitable-now not timeless; this live paper trial is the out-of-sample test.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-09 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
No bets yet — it will bet automatically when its conditions are met.
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.