EPL 2025-26 season sim

← all runs · poisson_tw v1 · 10,000 iterations · seed 424242 · as of 2025-08-15

How the season ends — chance of each fate

Team	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegation
Man City	79.3	40.9%	96.2%	0.0%
Arsenal	77.2	30.2%	93.4%	0.0%
Liverpool	76.4	25.7%	92.2%	0.0%
Newcastle	63.7	1.6%	39.5%	0.1%
Chelsea	61.6	1.0%	29.1%	0.1%
Aston Villa	57.0	0.2%	13.0%	0.5%
Brentford	54.1	0.1%	7.1%	1.2%
Tottenham	53.9	0.1%	6.5%	1.6%
Brighton	53.8	0.1%	7.0%	1.5%
Crystal Palace	51.3	0.0%	3.5%	3.0%
Bournemouth	50.6	0.0%	3.1%	3.6%
Man United	50.2	0.0%	2.8%	4.1%
Fulham	50.1	0.1%	2.8%	4.0%
Nott'm Forest	49.9	0.0%	2.4%	4.6%
Everton	45.9	0.0%	0.7%	10.3%
West Ham	44.1	0.0%	0.4%	15.8%
Wolves	41.9	0.0%	0.2%	22.5%
Leeds	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	59.7%
Burnley	32.1	0.0%	0.0%	74.8%
Sunderland	26.5	0.0%	0.0%	92.5%

{
  "kind": "season",
  "name": "EPL 2025-26 season sim",
  "seed": 424242,
  "season": "2025-26",
  "competition": "EPL",
  "n_iterations": 10000
}