← Premier League 2025-26 · Tue, May 19, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 42% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Chelsea −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +7% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
| 43' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Destiny Udogie · Tottenham |
| 67' | ⚽ | Andrey Santos · Chelsea |
| 74' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jorrel Hato · Chelsea |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 87' | 🟨 | Liam Delap · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dário Essugo · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days |
| 291.00 |
| 199.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1733.67 | 1674.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -55.84 | 14.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 49.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 10.32 | 8.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.56 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.13 | 26.33 |
| state index | -0.69 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 16.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.05 |