← Premier League 2025-26 · Tue, May 19, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 59% | 68% | 1.62 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 20% | 12% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City +0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Bournemouth +0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 67% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 33% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Tyler Adams · Bournemouth |
| 39' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 59' | 🟨 | James Hill · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adrien Truffert · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gianluigi Donnarumma · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodri · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1053.00 |
| 3609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1753.90 | 1913.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.61 | 23.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 1.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| league points | 55.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 10.19 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 20.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 1.90 |
| solidity v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 26.07 |
| state index | 1.17 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 306.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 2.18 |