← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 46% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
| West Ham win | 30% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Newcastle −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Nick Woltemade · Newcastle |
| 19' | ⚽ | William Osula · Newcastle |
| 59' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 65' | ⚽ | William Osula · Newcastle |
| 67' | 🟨 | El Hadji Malick Diouf · West Ham |
| 69' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · West Ham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mohamadou Kanté · West Ham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Lewis Hall · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 1658.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1909.62 | 1809.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.39 | 11.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.15 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.65 | 26.65 |
| state index | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 398.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.24 |