← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 54% | 64% | 1.75 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 3.90 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 22% | 16% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Brentford −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 40' | ⚽ | Dango Ouattara · Brentford |
| 52' | ⚽ | Adam Wharton · Crystal Palace |
| 83' | 🟨 | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 88' | ⚽ | Dango Ouattara · Brentford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Kayode · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dean Henderson · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Brentford Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 320.00 |
| 836.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1708.71 | 1702.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.16 | 2.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 51.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.48 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.62 | 26.98 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 17.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.57 |