← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 61% | 59% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 18% | 23% | 5.25 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Man United −1 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 58% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 53' | ⚽ | Morato · Nott'm Forest |
| 55' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Man United |
| 76' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Man United |
| 78' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 78' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 289.00 | 258.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1800.41 | 1757.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.93 | 27.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 65.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 6.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 26.07 |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 96.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.32 |