← Premier League 2025-26 · Fri, May 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 37% | 43% | 2.55 | value: +9% |
| Aston Villa win | 35% | 34% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Aston Villa +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +6% |
| Under | 48% | 43% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 42' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 52' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 62' | 🟨 | Joe Gomez · Liverpool |
| 66' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 89' | ⚽ | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 90' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 1291.00 | 713.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1801.96 | 1834.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.33 | -10.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 59.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 5.25 | 6.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.02 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.72 | 25.91 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 125.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.20 |