← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 61% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.20 | fair |
| West Ham win | 16% | 25% | 6.00 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Arsenal +1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 51% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · West Ham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jean-Clair Todibo · West Ham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 79' | 🟨 | Cristhian Mosquera · Arsenal |
| 83' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 89' | 🟨 | William Saliba · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 313.00 | 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1627.17 | 1979.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.83 | -0.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.40 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 4.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 26.90 |
| state index | 0.32 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 8.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.68 |