← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, May 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 69% | 79% | 1.36 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.50 | fair |
| Brentford win | 13% | 7% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford −1.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Man City −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jérémy Doku · Man City |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nico O'Reilly · Man City |
| 75' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matheus Nunes · Man City |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jordan Henderson · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Omar Marmoush · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Omar Marmoush · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days |
| 3599.00 |
| 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1900.34 | 1715.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.39 | 1.29 |
| eye test v1 | 1.49 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 71.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 25.05 |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 256.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 1.63 |