← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 39% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
| Fulham win | 35% | 38% | 2.70 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Fulham +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 55% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 41' | 🟥 | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟥 | Joachim Andersen · Fulham |
| 50' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Muniz · Fulham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Rayan · Bournemouth |
| 59' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Fulham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Alex Scott · Bournemouth |
| 77' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson · Fulham |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joshua King · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1773.00 | 1043.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1685.05 | 1743.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.84 | 42.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 48.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.49 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.43 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.24 | 24.68 |
| state index | 0.53 | 1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 139.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.94 |