← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, May 9, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 47% | 65% | 2.00 | value: +30% ⚠ |
| Chelsea win | 28% | 20% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 15% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Liverpool −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Ryan Gravenberch · Liverpool |
| 35' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jorrel Hato · Chelsea |
| 73' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 83' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joe Gomez · Liverpool |
| 89' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 707.00 | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1838.76 | 1729.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.99 | -80.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| league points | 58.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 5.88 | 4.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 24.77 |
| state index | 0.85 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 286.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.23 |