← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, May 4, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 66% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
| Everton win | 15% | 16% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton +1.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Man City +1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Jérémy Doku · Man City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 48' | 🟨 | Beto · Everton |
| 53' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Everton |
| 68' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Everton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Gianluigi Donnarumma · Man City |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jake O'Brien · Everton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Everton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jake O'Brien · Everton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jérémy Doku · Man City |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 21 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 307.00 |
| 3594.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 7.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 11.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1697.43 | 1904.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.65 | 14.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 1.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.00 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 47.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 9.21 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 13.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 21.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 1.80 |
| solidity v1 | -0.69 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 28.42 | 25.24 |
| state index | 0.21 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 50.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.19 |