← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, May 3, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 42% | 34% | 2.25 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 37% | 3.60 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 47% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 53% | 2.20 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Conor Gallagher · Tottenham |
| 25' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 27' | 🟨 | Randal Kolo Muani · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ross Barkley · Aston Villa |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mathys Tel · Tottenham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kevin Danso · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days |
| 1279.00 |
| 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1808.29 | 1659.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.25 | -7.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 58.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 8.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.12 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.98 | 26.19 |
| state index | 0.74 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 160.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.34 |