← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 47% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.50 | fair |
| Wolves win | 26% | 37% | 3.60 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sunderland +0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Nordi Mukiele · Sunderland |
| 24' | 🟥 | Daniel Ballard · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Brian Brobbey · Sunderland |
| 54' | ⚽ | Santiago Bueno · Wolves |
| 56' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Sunderland |
| 81' | 🟨 | Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robin Roefs · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days |
| 274.00 |
| 670.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1526.90 | 1596.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.96 | -2.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| league points | 17.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -1.25 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 25.99 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 263.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.42 |