← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 39% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +6% |
| Newcastle win | 35% | 29% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Newcastle +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | William Osula · Newcastle |
| 22' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · Brighton |
| 24' | ⚽ | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 53' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sandro Tonali · Newcastle |
| 87' | 🟨 | Yoane Wissa · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days |
| 1643.00 |
| 700.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 1.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1739.07 | 1759.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.93 | 45.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| league points | 42.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 10.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -2.28 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 26.28 |
| state index | -0.41 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 468.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.55 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.75 |