← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 51% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| West Ham win | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| West Ham −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (og) | Konstantinos Mavropanos · Brentford |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Igor Thiago · Brentford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · West Ham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Michael Kayode · Brentford |
| 82' | ⚽ | Mikkel Damsgaard · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Scarles · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Brentford Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 305.00 |
| 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1704.15 | 1638.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.94 | 26.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| league points | 48.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 26.35 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 21.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.10 |