β Premier League 2025-26 Β· Mon, Apr 27, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 49% | 56% | 1.95 | value: +10% |
| Brentford win | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford β0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Man United β0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | π¨ | Luke Shaw Β· Man United |
| 11' | β½ | Casemiro Β· Man United |
| 40' | π¨ | Sepp van den Berg Β· Brentford |
| 43' | β½ | Benjamin Ε eΕ‘ko Β· Man United |
| 71' | π¨ | Dango Ouattara Β· Brentford |
| 76' | π¨ | Igor Thiago Β· Brentford |
| 87' | β½ | Mathias Jensen Β· Brentford |
| 90' | π¨ | Joshua Zirkzee Β· Man United |
| 90' | π¨ | Nathan Collins Β· Brentford |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 269.00 | 300.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1788.38 | 1710.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.30 | -8.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 58.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.53 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 25.02 |
| state index | 0.83 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| travel km | β | 257.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.54 |