← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 57% | 71% | 1.67 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 22% | 14% | 4.33 | fair |
| Wolves win | 21% | 15% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Wolves +0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 63% | 1.67 | value: +6% |
| Under | 43% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | André · Wolves |
| 56' | 🟨 | Hugo Bueno · Wolves |
| 56' | 🟨 | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Tottenham |
| 82' | ⚽ | João Palhinha · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Danso · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days |
| 267.00 |
| 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1535.31 | 1651.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.07 | -9.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 17.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.00 |
| solidity v1 | -1.36 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 25.76 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 178.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.36 |