← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 60% | 64% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 19% | 14% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Liverpool −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 51% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 49% | 2.63 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 32' | 🟨 | Dean Henderson · Crystal Palace |
| 35' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Liverpool |
| 40' | ⚽ | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
| 71' | ⚽ | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Borna Sosa · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Florian Wirtz · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 693.00 | 814.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1992.16 | 1851.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.62 | -0.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 55.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -0.51 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 26.94 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 298.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 2.17 |