← Premier League 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 36% | 27% | 2.63 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 34% | 36% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 37% | 3.10 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Trai Hume · Nott'm Forest |
| 31' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 34' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 37' | ⚽ | Igor Jesus · Nott'm Forest |
| 51' | 🟨 | Habib Diarra · Sunderland |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
| 58' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
| 60' | 🟨 | Igor Jesus · Nott'm Forest |
| 69' | 🟨 | Neco Williams · Nott'm Forest |
| 75' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Sunderland |
| 76' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| 🟨 |
| Ryan Yates · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 662.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1613.71 | 1729.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.35 | 48.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| league points | 46.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.23 | 27.08 |
| state index | 0.36 | 1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 220.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.26 |