← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Apr 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 53% | 38% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 44% | 3.90 | value: +71% ⚠ |
| Leeds win | 23% | 18% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Leeds −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 51% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 49% | 2.38 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 41' | 🟨 | Álex Jiménez · Bournemouth |
| 60' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | James Hill · Leeds |
| 85' | ⚽ | Rayan · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sean Longstaff · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1026.00 | 1026.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1924.24 | 1876.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.10 | 10.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| league points | 48.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.85 | 27.56 |
| state index | 1.24 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 338.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 1.64 |