β Premier League 2025-26 Β· Tue, Apr 21, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C. Pawson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Brighton win | 42% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +7% |
| Chelsea win | 32% | 33% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Chelsea β0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Brighton β0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +6% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand