← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 19, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 51% | 59% | 1.85 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.70 | fair |
| Arsenal win | 23% | 18% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Arsenal −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 49% | 1.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Rayan Cherki · Man City |
| 18' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 36' | 🟨 | Cristhian Mosquera · Arsenal |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Man City |
| 65' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 83' | 🟨 | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days |
| 3579.00 |
| 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.08 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1890.44 | 1980.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.86 | -0.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.29 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| league points | 64.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 91.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | 0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 26.28 |
| state index | 0.93 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 256.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.77 |