← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 65% | 61% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Burnley win | 14% | 18% | 7.00 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Nott'm Forest −1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 62' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 69' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 75' | 🟨 | Florentino Luís · Burnley |
| 77' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Igor Jesus · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | City Ground |
| coach days | 230.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1868.77 | 1728.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.32 | -30.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 33.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.46 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 27.27 |
| state index | 1.16 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 119.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 2.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.06 |