← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 54% | 60% | 1.75 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 19% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Aston Villa −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 9' | ⚽ | Chris Rigg · Sunderland |
| 36' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 46' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 66' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki · Sunderland |
| 86' | ⚽ | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 87' | ⚽ | Wilson Isidor · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amadou Onana · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Ballard · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nordi Mukiele · Sunderland |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| Tammy Abraham · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1265.00 | 657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1827.81 | 1617.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.74 | 36.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| league points | 55.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | 1.19 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.07 | 26.43 |
| state index | 1.35 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 269.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.39 |