← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 59% | 52% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.10 | value: +16% |
| Leeds win | 18% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.75 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Leeds −0.75 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Noah Okafor · Leeds |
| 18' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Man United |
| 29' | ⚽ | Noah Okafor · Leeds |
| 39' | 🟨 | James Justin · Leeds |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 56' | 🟥 | Lisandro Martínez · Man United |
| 64' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 69' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Man United |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days |
| 255.00 |
| 1017.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1791.48 | 1673.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.23 | -13.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 55.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 23.96 | 22.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.61 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 27.84 |
| state index | 1.24 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 59.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.13 |