← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 12, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 40% | 34% | 2.40 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 32% | 23% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 43% | 3.30 | value: +42% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Crystal Palace +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 54% | 1.91 | value: +3% |
| Under | 50% | 46% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | William Osula · Newcastle |
| 68' | 🟨 | Malick Thiaw · Newcastle |
| 74' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Ramsdale · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 801.00 | 1623.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1709.48 | 1764.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.92 | 1.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| league points | 39.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 21.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.62 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 1.60 | -1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.43 | 27.17 |
| state index | 1.05 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 410.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.63 | 2.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 1.60 |